Arktor Posted:

You can’t honestly be as dumb as you pretend to be.

Okay, none of that. If you can’t keep the discussion civil, start something up in Whiny ****es.

I personally think Summergirl simply uses the same ideal strategy that we all use, which apparently has a small margin of profit. I decided to give GambleBot another go today nonstop for about an hour, and ended up with F2000 more than I started with (my high was up F5000 and my low was down F12000), and that was after a furious battle with the bot using what was as far as I know the ideal strategy.

I’d say that the reason she makes so much per day is that she has an obscene amount of time on her hands, which exponentially magnifies the small margin of profit. While this kind of sucks for anyone else who wants to top the Fleez Leaderboard, I’m sure some of us will work our way up there eventually the old fashioned way.

Vuron Posted:

others are a bit over the top (75% return on pushes is brutal). I realize there is a need to reduce the easy flow of blackjack flezz for the composition players but I wonder if this will hurt the newbie players trying to gamble

Agreed. I haven’t said much because I don’t gamble in-game frequently, but changing a game as standard as blackjack in order to balance another game set on top of it seems wrong to me. Adding functionality like multiple decks (with hopefully no shuffling until you hit a cut card) and splits are fine, but messing with payouts and stuff just to handle a different game laid on top of it isn’t fair to the players who aren’t playing Domination.

Perhaps changing it to something which actually hurts you (like suicide does) would work. Something like at the beginning of the week it determines how much flezz you have, and then if you hit 90% of that, you get one scoop — AND your “starting value” is reset to the new one. This would mean you’d actually have to lose flezz to get scoops, and that people with a little could compete just as well as people with a lot.

MC Banhammer Posted:

Or she’s running a script non-stop. Is there a way to check for that?

mhm

Marcos El Malo Posted:

Escher, I think this might be more of a confrontation than a flame.

I’m perfectly happy for there to be confrontation, but IMO a single insult without additional argument is pretty much the essence of flaming.

Sux2BU Posted:

Okay, none of that. If you can’t keep the discussion civil, start something up in Whiny ****es.

I don’t see this post contributing to the discussion either. But honestly, if Sancdar’s going to pull stuff out of his bum, I can’t argue with it, because the argument’s already been made. If I went around in every thread saying “No you’re wrong” with no content, would that be allowed?

Arktor Posted:

I don’t see this post contributing to the discussion either. But honestly, if Sancdar’s going to pull stuff out of his bum, I can’t argue with it, because the argument’s already been made. If I went around in every thread saying “No you’re wrong” with no content, would that be allowed?

Well, how do you figure house edge for Gamblebot. Remember 7+8+6=21 pushes dealer BJ, no splitting, BJ plays 3:2, single-deck, dealer stands on soft 17.

Arktor Posted:

Look at the Flezz leaderboard. Summergirl is exploiting it. Statistically, there’s a 1:10^35 chance of consistently making that much money from blackjack.

Honestly, a source for this figure would be helpful.

BINGEBOT 2015 Posted:

...

Step 2 – Blackjack balancing:

– Blackjack (21) payout is 6:5 (instead of 3:2)

– Push (ties) yeilds (sic) 75% return only

– Dealer hits on a soft 17

– Multiple decks (4)

– Option to split

– Maybe: After splitting, player receive 1 scoop for winning each hand or loses 1 for losing each hand

– Can’t double down a split

– No spliting aces

– Maybe: On double down, player receive 2 scoops for winning, lose 1 for losing

Multi deck and 6:5. Why not just straight Vegas rules multi deck blackjack? Continuous shuffle kills the card counters, so nobody would do better than basic strategy. The 75% push is just weird. If you want to use rule variations, look at online odds calculators, like this one: http://www.drgamble.com/rules/blackjackcalculator.htm to get to the odds you want. No split aces is a good idea, IMHO. Why reinvent blackjack? If you can’t get to the odds you want with reasonable rules, maybe you don’t want blackjack in the game.

Also, most folks only double down when it’s already a smart bet. Why should they get double scoops?

markchd Posted:

Honestly, a source for this figure would be helpful.

Let’s suppose that the net return on a hand of blackjack is roughly 0.50.

Now, let’s bumume that the player has made 100,000 flezz over the course of 500 wins (i.e. 250 scoops), starting at 150,000 flezz. All bets are made for 1,000 flezz. Then the player has lost about 400 games. [These numbers are based on what I’ve noticed between the Flezz leaderboard, the number of antifreeze scoops earned, and cred earned [which can be used to approximate flezz earned the next day.])

Then what are the odds of winning at least 500 out of 900 games? Well, we can use a normal distribution with a mean of 450, and a standard deviation of sqrt(900*0.5*0.5) = 15. Thus values in excess of 100,000 net profit are 3.333 standard deviations above the mean. This corresponds to roughly an 0.000429 chance, or 0.0429%. See this link if you want to check for yourself. You can also play around with the numbers. My calculations suggest the odds could be as high as 0.51 in the player’s favor, in which case the odds are a noticeably higher 0.3135% – still very, very improbable.

Of course, this still does not take into account situations where the player goes bankrupt before being able to play 900 games, i.e. if the player gets a bad losing streak fairly early on. And once you arrive at a final number, square that in order to accommodate for this happening not once, but twice (the second at a noticeably higher initial value.)

Then again, my initial bumumptions may be wrong. I can’t claim to have meticulously recorded them, and so I’d welcome any corrections.

psst… are RPS and GTN supposed to yield antifreeze now? Because the max bet on RPS is 500.

Log in to see images! MySpace Tom edited this message on 05/18/2008 10:07PM