markchd Posted:

Honestly, a source for this figure would be helpful.

Let’s suppose that the net return on a hand of blackjack is roughly 0.50.

Now, let’s bumume that the player has made 100,000 flezz over the course of 500 wins (i.e. 250 scoops), starting at 150,000 flezz. All bets are made for 1,000 flezz. Then the player has lost about 400 games. [These numbers are based on what I’ve noticed between the Flezz leaderboard, the number of antifreeze scoops earned, and cred earned [which can be used to approximate flezz earned the next day.])

Then what are the odds of winning at least 500 out of 900 games? Well, we can use a normal distribution with a mean of 450, and a standard deviation of sqrt(900*0.5*0.5) = 15. Thus values in excess of 100,000 net profit are 3.333 standard deviations above the mean. This corresponds to roughly an 0.000429 chance, or 0.0429%. See this link if you want to check for yourself. You can also play around with the numbers. My calculations suggest the odds could be as high as 0.51 in the player’s favor, in which case the odds are a noticeably higher 0.3135% – still very, very improbable.

Of course, this still does not take into account situations where the player goes bankrupt before being able to play 900 games, i.e. if the player gets a bad losing streak fairly early on. And once you arrive at a final number, square that in order to accommodate for this happening not once, but twice (the second at a noticeably higher initial value.)

Then again, my initial bumumptions may be wrong. I can’t claim to have meticulously recorded them, and so I’d welcome any corrections.