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simple summary that should answer everything:
1. gamblebot is completely rigged every round u play, u have a large chance of losing. Mathematically, u r expected to lose money every round, no matter how many rounds u play, and what kind of lucky streaks u get. So playing more rounds in hoping of making up the difference is always mathematically expected to drain more money.
2. From a practical perspective, u may get better luck and win. Is it likely? Hell no, GambleBot is rigged. Can it happen? Yes, I payed for my earbleeders off of gamblebot winnings.
3. In conclusion, it CAN happen. Mathematically, don’t do it. Using the expected value, you lose flezz every round u play, no matter how often u win. So from a purely mathematical context, never gamble. Practically, it’s not going to happen, providing another basis for not gambling. |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 9:13PM | View ghax's Profile | # | ||||||
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Lets see, if you lose once you have about a 50% of breaking even (actually slightly less than that because it’s rigged, but we’ll say 50 give or take for arguments sake).
If you lose again you have a (1) 25% chance of winning twice in a row and breaking even, (2) a 25% of winning then losing, (3) a 25% of losing then winning, and (4) a 25% chance of losing twice.
So at this point 25% of winning (1) 50% chance of winning/losing (basically ‘a redo’ ending where you started) (2&3) 25% chance being four in the hole (snicker.. four in the hole) (4)
If you’re four in the hole you have to win four times in a row; about 6.25% (50%x50%x50%x50%) of that happening.
So you have a 25% chance of winning with an additional chance of 6.25% so I wanna say your odds would be 31.25%. Establishing a pattern:
A 50% chance of breaking even A 31.25% chance of breaking even A %15.625 ” ” ” ” A %7.8125 ” ” ” ” Etc.
Hold the phone — WRONG — that 6.25% figure from before should be 6.25% + 6.25%/4 = %7.8125; the same formula as we did when we got the 25% + 6.25 (i.e. 6.25 is 25/4). So It’d be:
A 50% chance of breaking even A 32.8125% chance of breaking even A %16.40625 ” ” ” ” A %8.203125 ” ” ” ” Etc.
Only — WRONG — %8.203125 doesn’t equal %7.8125. Because it’s like a ****ing chain that keeps going infinitely… Ugh… Well, it’s off by a very, very little bit, but it’s pretty ****in’ close enough. Celerysteve edited this message on 01/25/2009 10:34PM |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 10:32PM | View Celerysteve's Profile | # | ||||||
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generichaxor Posted:
The question is WILL it happen? given time and flezz |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:22PM | View Inertia's Profile | # | ||||||
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Inertia Posted:
Given an infinite number of attempts at gambling, and given that you are allowed to go into ‘debt’ (meaning that you start at zero flezz, and can go up or down) then because in an infinite sequence of bets you will eventually encounter a sufficiently long sequence of winning bets to overcome all previous losses, then the answer is YES, not only can it happen, but it will happen. Infinity plays a lot of havoc on probabilities. If you flip a coin an infinite number of times, then you will end up flipping it heads for any number of times in a row that you can name, and you will also end up flipping it tails for any number of times in a row that you can name. So, would you at some point have 1,000,000,000 wins in a row during an infinite sequence?
Of course. That’s what infinite means. It also means that at some point, such a winning streak will occur when you are back at ‘zero’. |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:29PM | View Acid Flux's Profile | # | ||||||
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tl;dr
All possible outcomes always occur in an infinite sequence (regardless of probability), and they also each occur an infinite number of times. Acid Flux edited this message on 01/25/2009 11:31PM |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:31PM | View Acid Flux's Profile | # | ||||||
Inertia Posted:
It has already been answered by multiple people. Why do you insist that this thread continues? |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:33PM | View twas's Profile | # | ||||||
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Acid Flux Posted:
Nice, I’m gonna go gamble |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:33PM | View Inertia's Profile | # | ||||||
Inertia Posted:
bumuming 50% , yes using the actual value (on average, i’ve won about 20% of the time)
base bumumption: u dont have leaderboard position at the beginning, so u need to win at least 1 flezz
lets say u lose once (bumume same bet every time) now u have to win twice to get ahead 80% X 20% X 20% = 0.032 = 3.2% chance of getting ahead this is pretty low
let’s say u lose twice now u have to win thrice to get ahead 80% X 80% X 20% X 20% X 20% = 0.00512 = 0.512% chance of getting ahead u get the idea
now this forms a geometric sequence. 3.2% + 0.512% + 0.08192%... = 3.2 / (1-.16) = 3.2/.84 = 3.81%
so overall u have a 3.81% chance of winning at some point if u play forever |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:36PM | View ghax's Profile | # | ||||||
Inertia Posted: did u hack flezz count? cus u probably dont have enough flezz to play forever |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:37PM | View ghax's Profile | # | ||||||
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generichaxor Posted:
yeah but I regularly get flezz from pwning forum, so eventually…I will top the flezz leaderboard |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:39PM | View Inertia's Profile | # | ||||||
Inertia Posted:
That’s bumuming your goal stays static. How do you prevent other players from earning flezz and making your goal harder to reach? |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:42PM | View twas's Profile | # | ||||||
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20% chance at winning? Dude, you’re a horrible blackjack player.
Also that’s not trolling. If you win 20% of the time YOU ARE a horrible blackjack player. |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:45PM | View Celerysteve's Profile | # | ||||||
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was Posted:
well, just bumume that my goal is 100,000,000 from the start. |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:47PM | View Inertia's Profile | # | ||||||
Celerysteve Posted:
remember gamblebot is rigged so 20% is pretty realistic
i get about the same results when i use intuition and strategy cards |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:48PM | View ghax's Profile | # | ||||||
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I still win AT LEAST 40% of the time. Here, you need this:
Log in to see images! |
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Posted On: 01/25/2009 11:59PM | View Celerysteve's Profile | # | ||||||
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