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Help Need mathfabulous persons help!

ghax

Avatar: 80241 Thu Jul 02 20:10:59 -0400 2009
17

Level 35 Camwhore

I love 12 inch fine upstanding member of society male reproductive organs in my arse

simple summary that should answer everything:

1. gamblebot is completely rigged

every round u play, u have a large chance of losing. Mathematically, u r expected to lose money every round, no matter how many rounds u play, and what kind of lucky streaks u get. So playing more rounds in hoping of making up the difference is always mathematically expected to drain more money.

2. From a practical perspective, u may get better luck and win. Is it likely? Hell no, GambleBot is rigged. Can it happen? Yes, I payed for my earbleeders off of gamblebot winnings.

3. In conclusion, it CAN happen. Mathematically, don’t do it.

Using the expected value, you lose flezz every round u play, no matter how often u win. So from a purely mathematical context, never gamble. Practically, it’s not going to happen, providing another basis for not gambling.

Celerysteve

Avatar: 61989 2011-12-28 11:21:37 -0500
24

[Temple of the Anth-
ropomorphic Majesty
]

Level 35 Troll

Right from the moment when I saw Saw, I laughed.

Lets see, if you lose once you have about a 50% of breaking even (actually slightly less than that because it’s rigged, but we’ll say 50 give or take for arguments sake).

If you lose again you have a (1) 25% chance of winning twice in a row and breaking even, (2) a 25% of winning then losing, (3) a 25% of losing then winning, and (4) a 25% chance of losing twice.

So at this point 25% of winning (1)

50% chance of winning/losing (basically ‘a redo’ ending where you started) (2&3)

25% chance being four in the hole (snicker.. four in the hole) (4)

If you’re four in the hole you have to win four times in a row; about 6.25% (50%x50%x50%x50%) of that happening.

So you have a 25% chance of winning with an additional chance of 6.25% so I wanna say your odds would be 31.25%. Establishing a pattern:

A 50% chance of breaking even

A 31.25% chance of breaking even

A %15.625 ” ” ” ”

A %7.8125 ” ” ” ”

Etc.

Hold the phone — WRONG — that 6.25% figure from before should be 6.25% + 6.25%/4 = %7.8125; the same formula as we did when we got the 25% + 6.25 (i.e. 6.25 is 25/4). So It’d be:

A 50% chance of breaking even

A 32.8125% chance of breaking even

A %16.40625 ” ” ” ”

A %8.203125 ” ” ” ”

Etc.

Only — WRONG — %8.203125 doesn’t equal %7.8125. Because it’s like a ****ing chain that keeps going infinitely… Ugh… Well, it’s off by a very, very little bit, but it’s pretty ****in’ close enough.

Celerysteve edited this message on 01/25/2009 10:34PM

Inertia

Avatar: 60995 Fri Apr 03 12:59:05 -0400 2009
34

[Shii is gay]

Level 35 Troll

also wow i have no male reproductive organ

generichaxor Posted:

3. In conclusion, it CAN happen. Mathematically, don’t do it.

Using the expected value, you lose flezz every round u play, no matter how often u win. So from a purely mathematical context, never gamble. Practically, it’s not going to happen, providing another basis for not gambling.

The question is WILL it happen?

given time and flezz

Acid Flux

Avatar: 6767 Tue Mar 17 11:41:54 -0400 2009
20

[Country Kitchen an-
d Flea Market
]

Level 35 Troll

KYOUBAI IS SUPER-SERIOUS BUSINESS

Inertia Posted:

The question is WILL it happen?

given time and flezz

Given an infinite number of attempts at gambling, and given that you are allowed to go into ‘debt’ (meaning that you start at zero flezz, and can go up or down) then because in an infinite sequence of bets you will eventually encounter a sufficiently long sequence of winning bets to overcome all previous losses, then the answer is YES, not only can it happen, but it will happen.

Infinity plays a lot of havoc on probabilities. If you flip a coin an infinite number of times, then you will end up flipping it heads for any number of times in a row that you can name, and you will also end up flipping it tails for any number of times in a row that you can name. So, would you at some point have 1,000,000,000 wins in a row during an infinite sequence?

Of course. That’s what infinite means. It also means that at some point, such a winning streak will occur when you are back at ‘zero’.

Acid Flux

Avatar: 6767 Tue Mar 17 11:41:54 -0400 2009
20

[Country Kitchen an-
d Flea Market
]

Level 35 Troll

KYOUBAI IS SUPER-SERIOUS BUSINESS

tl;dr

All possible outcomes always occur in an infinite sequence (regardless of probability), and they also each occur an infinite number of times.

Acid Flux edited this message on 01/25/2009 11:31PM

twas

Avatar: 40896 2011-11-01 00:47:59 -0400
15

[fine upstanding member of society]

Level 35 Troll

Wher Have My Poor Imaginary Wife and Child Gone

Inertia Posted:

The question is WILL it happen?

given time and flezz

It has already been answered by multiple people. Why do you insist that this thread continues?

Inertia

Avatar: 60995 Fri Apr 03 12:59:05 -0400 2009
34

[Shii is gay]

Level 35 Troll

also wow i have no male reproductive organ

Acid Flux Posted:

Given an infinite number of attempts at gambling, and given that you are allowed to go into ‘debt’ (meaning that you start at zero flezz, and can go up or down) then because in an infinite sequence of bets you will eventually encounter a sufficiently long sequence of winning bets to overcome all previous losses, then the answer is YES, not only can it happen, but it will happen.

Infinity plays a lot of havoc on probabilities. If you flip a coin an infinite number of times, then you will end up flipping it heads for any number of times in a row that you can name, and you will also end up flipping it tails for any number of times in a row that you can name. So, would you at some point have 1,000,000,000 wins in a row during an infinite sequence?

Of course. That’s what infinite means. It also means that at some point, such a winning streak will occur when you are back at ‘zero’.

Nice, I’m gonna go gamble

ghax

Avatar: 80241 Thu Jul 02 20:10:59 -0400 2009
17

Level 35 Camwhore

I love 12 inch fine upstanding member of society male reproductive organs in my arse

Inertia Posted:

The question is WILL it happen?

given time and flezz

bumuming 50% , yes

using the actual value (on average, i’ve won about 20% of the time)

base bumumption: u dont have leaderboard position at the beginning, so u need to win at least 1 flezz

lets say u lose once (bumume same bet every time)

now u have to win twice to get ahead

80% X 20% X 20% = 0.032 = 3.2% chance of getting ahead

this is pretty low

let’s say u lose twice

now u have to win thrice to get ahead

80% X 80% X 20% X 20% X 20% = 0.00512 = 0.512% chance of getting ahead

u get the idea

now this forms a geometric sequence.

3.2% + 0.512% + 0.08192%...

= 3.2 / (1-.16) = 3.2/.84 = 3.81%

so overall u have a 3.81% chance of winning at some point

if u play forever

ghax

Avatar: 80241 Thu Jul 02 20:10:59 -0400 2009
17

Level 35 Camwhore

I love 12 inch fine upstanding member of society male reproductive organs in my arse

Inertia Posted:

Nice, I’m gonna go gamble

did u hack flezz count?

cus u probably dont have enough flezz to play forever

Inertia

Avatar: 60995 Fri Apr 03 12:59:05 -0400 2009
34

[Shii is gay]

Level 35 Troll

also wow i have no male reproductive organ

generichaxor Posted:

did u hack flezz count?

cus u probably dont have enough flezz to play forever

yeah but I regularly get flezz from pwning forum, so eventually…I will top the flezz leaderboard

twas

Avatar: 40896 2011-11-01 00:47:59 -0400
15

[fine upstanding member of society]

Level 35 Troll

Wher Have My Poor Imaginary Wife and Child Gone

Inertia Posted:

yeah but I regularly get flezz from pwning forum, so eventually…I will top the flezz leaderboard

That’s bumuming your goal stays static. How do you prevent other players from earning flezz and making your goal harder to reach?

Celerysteve

Avatar: 61989 2011-12-28 11:21:37 -0500
24

[Temple of the Anth-
ropomorphic Majesty
]

Level 35 Troll

Right from the moment when I saw Saw, I laughed.

20% chance at winning? Dude, you’re a horrible blackjack player.

Also that’s not trolling. If you win 20% of the time YOU ARE a horrible blackjack player.

Inertia

Avatar: 60995 Fri Apr 03 12:59:05 -0400 2009
34

[Shii is gay]

Level 35 Troll

also wow i have no male reproductive organ

was Posted:

That’s bumuming your goal stays static. How do you prevent other players from earning flezz and making your goal harder to reach?

well, just bumume that my goal is  100,000,000 from the start.

ghax

Avatar: 80241 Thu Jul 02 20:10:59 -0400 2009
17

Level 35 Camwhore

I love 12 inch fine upstanding member of society male reproductive organs in my arse

Celerysteve Posted:

20% chance at winning? Dude, you’re a horrible blackjack player.

Also that’s not trolling. If you win 20% of the time YOU ARE a horrible blackjack player.

remember gamblebot is rigged

so 20% is pretty realistic

i get about the same results when i use intuition and strategy cards

Celerysteve

Avatar: 61989 2011-12-28 11:21:37 -0500
24

[Temple of the Anth-
ropomorphic Majesty
]

Level 35 Troll

Right from the moment when I saw Saw, I laughed.

I still win AT LEAST 40% of the time. Here, you need this:

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