Lets see, if you lose once you have about a 50% of breaking even (actually slightly less than that because it’s rigged, but we’ll say 50 give or take for arguments sake).

If you lose again you have a (1) 25% chance of winning twice in a row and breaking even, (2) a 25% of winning then losing, (3) a 25% of losing then winning, and (4) a 25% chance of losing twice.

So at this point 25% of winning (1)

50% chance of winning/losing (basically ‘a redo’ ending where you started) (2&3)

25% chance being four in the hole (snicker.. four in the hole) (4)

If you’re four in the hole you have to win four times in a row; about 6.25% (50%x50%x50%x50%) of that happening.

So you have a 25% chance of winning with an additional chance of 6.25% so I wanna say your odds would be 31.25%. Establishing a pattern:

A 50% chance of breaking even

A 31.25% chance of breaking even

A %15.625 ” ” ” ”

A %7.8125 ” ” ” ”

Etc.

Hold the phone — WRONG — that 6.25% figure from before should be 6.25% + 6.25%/4 = %7.8125; the same formula as we did when we got the 25% + 6.25 (i.e. 6.25 is 25/4). So It’d be:

A 50% chance of breaking even

A 32.8125% chance of breaking even

A %16.40625 ” ” ” ”

A %8.203125 ” ” ” ”

Etc.

Only — WRONG — %8.203125 doesn’t equal %7.8125. Because it’s like a ****ing chain that keeps going infinitely… Ugh… Well, it’s off by a very, very little bit, but it’s pretty ****in’ close enough.