Inertia Posted:

The question is WILL it happen?

given time and flezz

bumuming 50% , yes

using the actual value (on average, i’ve won about 20% of the time)

base bumumption: u dont have leaderboard position at the beginning, so u need to win at least 1 flezz

lets say u lose once (bumume same bet every time)

now u have to win twice to get ahead

80% X 20% X 20% = 0.032 = 3.2% chance of getting ahead

this is pretty low

let’s say u lose twice

now u have to win thrice to get ahead

80% X 80% X 20% X 20% X 20% = 0.00512 = 0.512% chance of getting ahead

u get the idea

now this forms a geometric sequence.

3.2% + 0.512% + 0.08192%...

= 3.2 / (1-.16) = 3.2/.84 = 3.81%

so overall u have a 3.81% chance of winning at some point

if u play forever