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Luck versus Charisma
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Charisma seems to affect cash flow more. Log in to see images! Also, snipe. |
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| Posted On: 09/30/2009 10:37PM |
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Luck: 62
Charisma: 24
Fans: 7881
# of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4
Cred at rollover: 483152
Cred gained yesterday: 47521
# of deliveries: 23
Total value of deliveries: 91972 |
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| Posted On: 09/30/2009 11:25PM |
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I thought I’d celebrate our 10th full data point by looking over the numbers and seeing if there’s anything taking shape. That said, 10 points does not a data set make, so anything I think I see could very well be due to chance.
Cred gain is, as far as I can tell, the strongest predictor of the total value of deliveries. Looking down the list (sorted by cred gain) there are however a few sudden drops and glitchy looking numbers, due to differences in stats. There’s a nice little collection of 4 runs, all with similar cred-gain (40-50K) but widely varying Luck/Charisma and Total Deliveries Value.
I had the computer draw some graphs of Luck, Charisma, Luck+Charisma and Luck*Charisma for those 4 runs, to compare to a graph of the resulting delivery value, see if any of the curves seemed to match. They did not. From looking at the numbers it seemed like Charisma was the more important stat, so I experimented with weighting the sum of the 2 (instead of Luck+Charisma, Luck+ n*Charisma) and found that making Charisma 3 or 4 times as valuable as Luck got a reasonably shaped curve.
Did some more fiddling with the numbers to standardise the effect of cred-gain, then tried applying it to the other data. The resulting formula was V = (L+4C)*c/80, where V = Delivery value, L = Luck, C = Charisma and c=cred-gain. That did quite well for most of the data (within a few percent of the real delivery value), but gave absurdly large values (up to 40 times the actual value) for the 2 runs on record with very high cred-gain (10 times the amount of cred of other data points). Needs more work, but it’s a starting point.
I suspect there’s a diminishing returns thing going on with cred-gain, so the model described only works well for a while before it starts drastically over-predicting deliveries because it hasn’t devalued the higher cred-gain appropriately. Or it might all be statistical noise Log in to see images!
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| Posted On: 10/01/2009 3:59PM |
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Luck: 19 (dammit!)
Charisma: 11
Fans: 10,890
# of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 8
Cred at rollover: 599920
Cred gained yesterday: 116728
# of deliveries: 36
Total value of deliveries: 88137 |
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| Posted On: 10/02/2009 10:38PM |
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Internet Confessional Paranoid Panorama Veterans of Foreign Whores Homeless Depot Luck: 1 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 (Will be running the same four forums above daily) Cred gained yesterday: 226135 # of deliveries: 17 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 17313
Tomorrow, 11 luck… |
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| Posted On: 10/03/2009 1:40PM |
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I pwn’d the exacts same 12 Forums, ending with a streak of 12 with 6 characters and made sure each had the same thread count, as such I earned 6706915 cred (according to the formula which is slightly off due to rounding) and here are my results.
1 Luck, 11 Charisma – 482179Log in to see images! 13 Luck, 44 Charisma – 478908Log in to see images! 31 Luck, 37 Charisma – 476085Log in to see images! 40 Luck, 26 Charisma – 465617Log in to see images! 45 Luck, 73 Charisma – 482841Log in to see images! 100 Luck, 46 Charisma – 479267Log in to see images!
Other than my Re-Re being an odd outlier, the rest follow a fairly similar pattern which says Luck is irrelevant while Charisma is all important, but even then the difference is only about 4% for 70 Charisma.
More drastic was Fan loss. The difference between Fan loss for my Camwhore vs the Re-Re was that the Camwhore suffered only 67% of the fan loss that my re-re did.
More numbers for both will be coming soon. |
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| Posted On: 10/04/2009 11:58AM |
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Luck: 11 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 228271 # of deliveries: 25 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 49887 |
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| Posted On: 10/04/2009 12:18PM |
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I’ve just started uni… and I do not know that I’ll be able to carry on checking in here quite so often. This Luck/Charisma project needs a new head-man I think, because I really can’t commit to carrying on collecting all the numbers.
All the data I’ve got is taken direct from this thread, with the exception of my own runs, which were as follows:
Luck: 74 Charisma: 72 Unique Forums: 4 Cred gained: 928449 # of deliveries: 18 Total value: 156325
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Luck: 10 Charisma: 35 Unique Forums: 4 Cred gained: 2884285 # of deliveries: 20 Total value: 125201
I’m almost dubious of the second one’s cred-gain figure… it seems absurdly high next to the others, but that’s what I’ve got written down. man-man edited this message on 10/05/2009 10:58AM |
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| Posted On: 10/05/2009 10:58AM |
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Luck: 21 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 236409 # of deliveries: 21 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 85,396 |
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| Posted On: 10/05/2009 12:37PM |
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Sorry for the big gap in postaga… one smashed computer tower and many viruses later…
Luck: 31 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 231516 # of deliveries: 16 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 106619
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| Posted On: 10/17/2009 2:05PM |
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Luck: 41 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 213215 # of deliveries: 20 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 129352 |
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| Posted On: 10/18/2009 11:23AM |
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Luck: 51 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 210145 # of deliveries: 20 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 157360 |
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| Posted On: 10/20/2009 3:55PM |
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Afterthotz, I have a collection of deliveries with a lot of extra info acquired for someone else, but I don’t want to take the time to post all of it since it’s a lot of stuff. You want I e-mail it to you or send a rapidshare link or something?
Also I was mistaken, Luck does matter, however like Charisma it only matters until you hit a roof for deliveries it seems which is around 120000 per Forum. Seems fairly random around that point but if you have high enough numbers you can get max deliveries from difficulty 13 Forums!
My theory is that the number and value of deliveries is figured out after the value of the deliveries and simply made to fit as best as it can which would explain the growth pattern of junk costs. One would be able to make nearly any value with only 5 Junk and the rest could explain the random factor.
It would be the simplest explanation for how they work and far easier to program than categorization of junk and random determination that way. |
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| Posted On: 10/20/2009 7:46PM |
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Dunatis Posted: I bumume that’s only because the Camwhore had a higher streak than the Re-Re; I doubt that Luck or Charisma matter for Fan loss. |
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| Posted On: 10/20/2009 7:56PM |
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Amasius Posted:
Actually for my testing they had not only the same streak, but I ran my visits concurrently so they even had the exact same amount of cred gain in an attempt to see the effects of it. Luck has 0 effect on it, but Charisma has a fairly significant effect. |
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| Posted On: 10/21/2009 9:49AM |
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Luck: 61 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 256381 # of deliveries: 19 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 159,616
And unfortunately, that’s as high as I can go with luck (61) with my current flezz/moars without raising charisma as well. I’ll start on Luck 1/Charisma 11 and up next. If anyone else feels like gathering data points on the same four forums with any combination of Luck/Char, please feel free to post your results here. Internet Confessional Paranoid Panorama Veterans of Foreign Whores Homeless Depot
Dunatis Posted:
Sure Dunatis, if you wan’t to send me a tub we’ll work something out. I can’t promise I can sort through and post it quickly, but I can try. And remember, what little brain I have left is very right side’ish – I’m no statistician – just a wee little grunt plodding along the spreadsheet highway. man-man Posted: I’ll keep posting data here, and maybe clean it up in a few weeks. Someone else will have to do the number crunching though. |
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| Posted On: 10/21/2009 10:29AM |
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I’m actually still watching the thread and recording the data… I may have overestimated the demands on my time. Or maybe the workload just hasn’t fully hit me yet, who knows. |
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| Posted On: 10/21/2009 2:19PM |
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Interesting note from the dataz: Only one result I have here significantly exceeds 40K per unique forum pwned.
The outlier is one of my own runs… came back with 210K from 4 forums pwned. All the rest are constrained by that… some get right up close (97-99%, there’s one at 101%) but no others go over.
Squares with what I’ve noticed from Floyd-farming – no matter how much cred I must be gaining (HoFF being a high level forum) I never get back much more than 40K in deliveries.
Also of note, all the data points where the formula I suggested earlier mbumive over-predicts the actual value are pressed up against 40K/forum. Except for one where the prediction was 40 times over the actual value, but the actual value was less than 80% of a hypothetical 40K/forum limit.
So yeah… rough guide to delivery values = (4*Charisma + Luck) * Cred-gain/75, but limited to ~40K per unique forum. man-man edited this message on 10/22/2009 6:18PM |
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| Posted On: 10/22/2009 6:07PM |
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Haxlrose had me over a barrel – sorry for the delay.
Luck: 1 Charisma: 11 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 254187 # of deliveries: 16 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 117,655 |
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| Posted On: 10/24/2009 11:15AM |
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Luck: 1 Charisma: 21 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 262325 # of deliveries: 21 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 158,370 Afterthotz edited this message on 10/25/2009 1:02PM |
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| Posted On: 10/25/2009 12:30PM |
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