There have been a few discussions about the Pink Floyd .moar file in the light of suggestions by some that some pieces of the file are particularly rare and by others that having a high level of luck will mean that you’re more likely to end up getting pieces of the file that you haven’t already got.

I wanted to put this to the test and compare the number of unique pieces of the file that people have got with the number that they would have if a random piece of the file dropped each time they received a single piece of the .moar file. If people with high luck have more unique pieces than they would if it were totally random, this would suggest that you really are more likely to get missing pieces with higher luck. If everyone has less unique pieces than they should then this suggests that some pieces really are more rare than others.

For this reason, I’d like to use this thread to pose two questions. Firstly, is there a formula to work out how many unique pieces a player “should” have once they’ve collected a certain total number of pieces (if the pieces were random)? Secondly, how many total and unique pieces has everyone got, and how does this compare with the number they “should” have? Does their luck make a difference to this answer?

In reference to the first question, it’s been too long since I finished school for me to remember much of my Maths A-Level, so I’m no good at formulating formulas (formulae?) any more. Instead, I set up a spreadsheet. For each piece that was dropped, I bumumed that the chance of a unique piece dropping was (50-u)/50 where u is the number of unique pieces so far. I carried the number forwards each time with no rounding at all. After getting the first piece, the player is guaranteed to have one unique piece. After getting another piece, he has a 98% chance of getting a new unique piece, meaning that he will on average get 0.98 new unique pieces. I’m saying that he will now have 1.98 unique pieces and carrying that number forwards, meaning that he has a 96.04% chance of getting a unique piece when he gets his next piece.

Can someone who is good at Maths let me know whether calculating the numbers in this way is likely to work, or whether I’m getting this all wrong? Am I wrong to bumume that I can use these numbers without rounding them in any way? If so, what’s a better way of calculating the answer?

If these figures are accurate, then this is the number of unique pieces any player would expect if the piece number was totally random each time:

Total  Unique        Total  Unique        Total  Unique
1      1             30     22.73         100    43.37
2      1.98          35     25.35         110    44.58
3      2.94          40     27.71         120    45.57
4      4.8           45     29.86         130    46.38
5      5.71          50     31.79         140    47.04
10     9.15          60     35.12         160    48.03
15     13.07         70     37.84         180    48.68
20     16.62         80     40.07         200    49.12
25     19.83         90     41.88         250    49.68

As to the second question, I’ve had around 35 to 40 luck for most of my grinding and I’ve presently got 53 pieces of the .moar file and I’ve got 28 unique pieces. This is a bit lower than the figure I should expect to have, but not proof of anything more than bad luck in itself.

How about you guys? How many total pieces have you got and how many different pieces have you got? Roughly what has your luck stat been set at while you’ve been getting these pieces?

199 total pieces, 50 unique

Piece #1 x 7

Piece #2 x 3

Piece #3

Piece #4 x 5

Piece #6 x 3

Piece #7 x 3

Piece #8 x 2

Piece #9 x 6

Piece #10 x 6

Piece #11 x 6

Piece #12 x 2

Piece #13 x 6

Piece #14 x 2

Piece #15 x 2

Piece #16

Piece #17 x 4

Piece #19 x 5

Piece #20 x 3

Piece #21 x 2

Piece #22 x 7

Piece #23

Piece #24 x 3

Piece #25

Piece #26

Piece #27 x 4

Piece #28 x 7

Piece #29 x 2

Piece #30

Piece #31 x 3

Piece #32

Piece #33 x 6

Piece #34 x 2

Piece #35 x 3

Piece #36 x 4

Piece #37 x 2

Piece #38 x 3

Piece #39 x 4

Piece #40 x 2

Piece #41 x 3

Piece #42 x 5

Piece #43 x 3

Piece #44 x 5

Piece #45 x 3

Piece #46 x 6

Piece #47

Piece #48 x 3

Piece #49 x 4

Piece #50 x 2

Missing:

Piece #5

Piece #18

161 pieces, 48 unique, Luck 50.

I’m a forumwarz n00b and there are lots of area’s about it that are a mystery to me. Log in to see images!

I thought luck just affected the value of junk people send you but your saying it has something to do with .moar files? I haven’t invested much in luck so it’s always been between 0-9. Log in to see images!

I was just selling all the .moar files I didn’t use. Log in to see images!

Looking at pink floyd it seems to be worth trying to get with +30 off/def. Log in to see images!

I need to find out .moar about .moar and such. Log in to see images!

Now I’m gonna play about with resetting my ability points for the first time. Log in to see images!

Oh and 9/50 pinks. Log in to see images! assfuck-axe-7 edited this message on 12/26/2008 2:54PM

* Piece #1

* Piece #2

* Piece #3 x 2

* Piece #5 x 2

* Piece #6 x 7

* Piece #7 x 2

* Piece #8 x 2

* Piece #11

* Piece #12

* Piece #13 x 6

* Piece #15

* Piece #16

* Piece #17 x 2

* Piece #18

* Piece #19 x 2

* Piece #22 x 2

* Piece #23 x 2

* Piece #24 x 2

* Piece #25

* Piece #26 x 2

* Piece #28 x 3

* Piece #31 x 3

* Piece #32 x 3

* Piece #33 x 3

* Piece #34

* Piece #35

* Piece #36 x 2

* Piece #37

* Piece #38

* Piece #39

* Piece #40 x 4

* Piece #41

* Piece #42 x 2

* Piece #43 x 4

* Piece #45 x 2

* Piece #48 x 5

* Piece #49 x 2

* Piece #50

Missing:

* Piece #4

* Piece #9

* Piece #10

* Piece #14

* Piece #20

* Piece #21

* Piece #27

* Piece #29

* Piece #30

* Piece #44

* Piece #46

* Piece #47

Luck 20

UPGRADE POINTS ARE FOR fabulous personS Posted:

http://www.forumwarz.com/discussions/view/21007

Well that answers the first question (though it answers it the opposite way around). It’s odd, the answers seem to agree with mine until you get to around 49 pieces. Obviously my way of counting doesn’t really have a good way of coping with the very high numbers at the end (as it would take an infinite number of turns before you would be 100% certain to reach a total of 50 different pieces).

Anyway, here’s a summary of the data so far:

Grayson - 53 total, 28 unique. Should expect 32 and is down on this with 35 to 40 luck.
Bonekhi - 56 total, 36 unique. Should expect 33 and is up on this with 13 to 18 luck.
Capi Duffman - 81 total, 38 unique. Should expect 40 and is slightly down with 20 luck.
Fran - 82 total, 41 unique. Should expect 40 and is almost exactly on this with 15 and 38 luck.
Benjamini - 128 total, 45 unique. Should expect 46 and is almost exactly on this with 20 and 70 luck.
Papa Zito - 161 total, 48 unique. Should expect 48 and is exactly on this with 50 luck.
MC Banhammer - 199 total, 50 unique. Completed the file in the expected window (175 to 225).
Tubsweetie - 210 total, 49 unique. Is on track to complete the file in or near the expected window. 13 to 18 luck.

All of this seems to suggest that the .moar file drops really are random – that there aren’t any particularly rare pieces (not even an randomly bumigned piece for each player) and that having high or low luck doesn’t seem to have any impact on whether or not you get a piece you haven’t got already (though it may influence whether or not you get a piece of this particular file in the first place).

It would be good to get some more data to confirm this…

Found:

Piece #1 x 3

Piece #2 x 2

Piece #3 x 2

Piece #4 x 8

Piece #5 x 7

Piece #6

Piece #7 x 4

Piece #10

Piece #11 x 2

Piece #12 x 3

Piece #13 x 3

Piece #14

Piece #15

Piece #16 x 7

Piece #17 x 2

Piece #18 x 5

Piece #19

Piece #21 x 2

Piece #22 x 3

Piece #23 x 7

Piece #24

Piece #26 x 2

Piece #27 x 6

Piece #28 x 5

Piece #29

Piece #30 x 5

Piece #31 x 4

Piece #32 x 3

Piece #33 x 4

Piece #34 x 4

Piece #35

Piece #36 x 6

Piece #37 x 3

Piece #38

Piece #39 x 2

Piece #40

Piece #41 x 5

Piece #42 x 3

Piece #43 x 5

Piece #44 x 3

Piece #45 x 4

Piece #46

Piece #47

Piece #48 x 5

Piece #49 x 5

Piece #50 x 3

Missing:

Piece #8

Piece #9

Piece #20

Piece #25

That’s what’s left after getting the whole thing already. I ground HoFF so much that I lost count of the visits, and I don’t feel like checking.

maybe i missed it. where did the thread ask for what pages you have to be posted limpfmale reproductive organs?Log in to see images!

You want more data? No problem. Here is where ten of mine are at:

total pieces/unique pieces/luck

173/50/L35

125/47/L41

88/44/L33

83/42/L33

93/41/L28

53/33/L32

49/31/L34

48/31/L43

45/28/L36

43/27/L31

pink floyd – darkside full album (tt

ly syncs w/ wzrd of oz at 2:43 aweso

me!!!).hear

Found:

* Piece #1 x 2

* Piece #2 x 2

* Piece #3 x 4

* Piece #4

* Piece #5 x 4

* Piece #6

* Piece #7 x 2

* Piece #8 x 2

* Piece #9 x 2

* Piece #10 x 4

* Piece #12 x 4

* Piece #13 x 2

* Piece #15 x 4

* Piece #16

* Piece #17

* Piece #18

* Piece #20 x 2

* Piece #21 x 4

* Piece #22 x 3

* Piece #23

* Piece #24

* Piece #25 x 2

* Piece #26

* Piece #27 x 3

* Piece #28

* Piece #29

* Piece #30 x 2

* Piece #31

* Piece #32 x 6

* Piece #33

* Piece #34 x 3

* Piece #36 x 3

* Piece #37 x 3

* Piece #38 x 4

* Piece #39 x 2

* Piece #40 x 5

* Piece #41 x 2

* Piece #42 x 2

* Piece #43 x 2

* Piece #44 x 2

* Piece #46 x 3

* Piece #47

* Piece #48 x 2

* Piece #49 x 3

* Piece #50 x 2

Missing:

* Piece #11

* Piece #14

* Piece #19

* Piece #35

* Piece #45

Looks like 105 total, 45 unique. My luck is at 19.