Bub1029 Posted:

What are the chances that I will actually win this? Let’s see: There are approximately 27000 Forumwarz accounts that aren’t bots. Subtract the 25% that find contests a haven for beggars or are just too cool for this. 27000-6750=20250. Subtract the approximate 3% of newbies. 20250-810=19440. The average amount for entering a lower key contest is around 500 people. multiply that by the raised magnitude of this contest. Highest reward being 20 BP. 500*20=10000. The percent loss on the total should equal the percent loss on partial, so subtract 28% from the 10000. 10000-2800=7200. Therefore, according to simple quick and “in your head” math any entrant has and approximate 1 in 7200 chance to win the 20BP grand prize. But to win any prize we merely take our rate and divide it by the amount of prizes to get a 1 in 533.85 chance to win anything.

I don’t like those odds, but hey, why shouldn’t I enter?

Actually, with 13 prizes, and a maximum amount of entrants at around 600, there seems to be something a bit off about your math. But thanks for entering anyway!