Pavilion Posted:

Pretty much.

Let’s take the 50/50 chance. You lose the first one and you now have a 50% chance of making up the loss. If you miss the 2nd time, you have to win two times, aka two rounds of 50/50 chance, leaving you with a 25% chance of making up the whole thing. As you keep losing the chances of making it up shrinks. It’s easier to use exponents:

You lose 4 times with 50% chance, .5^4=.0625 or 6.25% chance of making up. Of course, there isn’t the factor of actually winning and not getting a straight loss streak. But you will eventually get to 4 losses or more, especially with Gamble-Bot’s rigged Blackjack.

It’s not really like that. The question being asked is worded weird, and were all interpreting it differently. P much every post moves my view of what equation you should be using around.

Every time you lose you are going to have a differently probability, based solely on the way you guys are interpreting the question. If you lose four games, then you need four more to make it up. Should they be 4 in a row? I guess not because if you win one and lose three more, you suddenly need a new probability. Ultimately that won’t actually TELL you anything.

Stop think of it as ‘making up’ what you have lost, it is much much simpler, and just as correct to look at ALL the games you play. Like I said before, if you have a 50% chance of winning one game, you will win ~50% of ALL the games, effectively breaking you even. So you will only ‘make up’ for all of your losses if you chance of winning a single game is 50%, any less and you will lose more, and higher chance and you will win more.