Inertia Posted:

Let me simplify the question.

[u]This theorem “Given time, what can happen will happen”

Does it hold under the discussed cirgreat timesstance?[/u]

Because what can happen is I get to be on top of the flezz leaderboard purely from gambling. If I keep trying maybe I’ll get there?

I somewhat feel like I’m being made fun of by creationists.

edit: Feel free to use BBCode for your formatting needs, they say…

Well, I’m not a math major, so I don’t understand the math behind it, and I don’t know how to make it any clearer.

In the example I provided, the chance of a reaction happening in the atmosphere is fairly constant – so stretched across a period of time, it becomes more likely to occur.

But in gambling, the chance of breaking even isn’t stable – every time you lose, the chances become smaller, and, statistically, you’ll lose more often then you’ll win. So when you stretch that across a period of time, the chances don’t become anymore likely – in fact, they become less likely.

That is, if I understand this all correctly.

Also, this idea is actually against creationism – creationists argue that the chance of such a reaction is too small to be significant, whereas opponents of creationism argue that, stretched across a period of time, it becomes more likely to happen, even if that very small percentage doesn’t change at all.