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DarkDespair5 Posted:
Earth is 4.6 billion years old. The universe must be even older. Easily, at least 1000 reactions to create life happened per year. Thus, over such a long period of time, possibly trillions of such reactions have occurred, making it very likely that at least of them produced life. if my math is correct 2^1,000,000,000,000 > 10^166,000. Thus, the formation of life is very likely. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 2:08AM | View uhh's Profile | # | ||||||
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uhh Posted:
Your math is not correct.
I’m not sure where the “two” is coming from, but you’re not doing it right anyway. If you have a bag with 300 numbers in it, the probability of pulling them all out in order isn’t 1x10^300. You don’t raise it by a power of 10 for every new trial. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 2:16AM | View Shii's Profile | # | ||||||
Shii Posted:
Shii Posted: |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 2:27AM | View uhh's Profile | # | ||||||
For such a reaction, I can think of two outcomes: 1. life is created 2. life isn’t created. so the chance that no life is created is (1/2)^1,000,000,000 which is too small. The chance that life is created = 1 – (1/2)^1,000,000,000 which effectively equals 1. —————————————— edit: i’m going to bed, so i’ll see your rebumal in the morning uhh edited this message on 05/30/2009 2:32AM |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 2:31AM | View uhh's Profile | # | ||||||
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uhh Posted:
I think in order to have a rebumal there needs to be something to “rebum.” As it stands, you’re basically bending mathematics over your knee and spanking it.
Firstly, you make up your own arbitrary numbers to support your points based on your bumumptions about how many reactions are taking place. Then, you calculate those arbitrary numbers wrongly anyway.
My number is based on the number of letters of DNA that make up the simplest single-cell bacterium; it’s not an bumumption or anything close to arbitrary. When you have something approaching concrete that didn’t just come out of your imagination, then we can have a debate. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 2:41AM | View Shii's Profile | # | ||||||
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 2:47AM | View Inertia's Profile | # | ||||||
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Inertia Posted:
I’m willing to admit the articles I’d read on the subject are possibly mis-informed as well; however, I am hesitant to accept this person’s research because he’s acting as if a peptide ligase sequence = life.
A probiotic enzyme chain is not life. Life is far, far more staggeringly complex. Furthermore, if it was so easy to generate life by using these self-replicating peptide sequences, I’m sure it would’ve been done by now. Again, organic biotic molecules and peptide chains do not constitute life. And until the peptides can somehow make the huge jump from molecule sequences to living, reproducing life, I’m unwilling to bridge my stance.
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 2:53AM | View Shii's Profile | # | ||||||
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And I’m willing to admit that I understand not one sentence in that article |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 3:24AM | View Inertia's Profile | # | ||||||
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Hobart Bliggity Posted:
Whoa! Suddenly I feel so small.
And yes, I do believe that we aren’t alone in here. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 3:25AM | View Lama glama's Profile | # | ||||||
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Catt although Posted:
This, pretty much. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 3:25AM | View Ricket's Profile | # | ||||||
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Okay, so, I could write a big long post explaining why that probability statement is invalid (and there are many reasons that have been somewhat covered so far, and are well covered in Inertia’s link), but I won’t. Instead, I’ll just state that if a god created us, and the rest of the universe, and we’re the only life in it, that’s a whole lot of wasted space, just up there to look pretty. Why do planets exist around other stars, if a god made it? Any reason other than “to give astronomers something to look for”?
Really, I think it’d make much more sense for a deity only interested in humans to put us in a snowglobe-like enclosure, rather than this gigantic universe, billions of light years across. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 4:32AM | View Ricket's Profile | # | ||||||
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Ricket Posted:
I dunno; it might just look big to us. I’m sure it’s pretty snow-globey to God. :3 |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 4:42AM | View Shii's Profile | # | ||||||
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Shii Posted:
Lemme try this again.
You’ve got this single snow speck that you love, in a snowglobe. It’s your favorite, you’ve named it, you created it special, drawn little people on it through the use of a microscope and tiny tools, and really, the only reason for the snowglobe to exist at all, is that speck. Yet, you’ve also placed thousands of other specks inside the snowglobe, each remarkable similar to your speck. Why? Ricket edited this message on 05/30/2009 4:50AM |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 4:49AM | View Ricket's Profile | # | ||||||
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Inertia Posted: Admittedly, this is well beyond my area of expertise, but I’ll weigh in with my thoughts.
Basically the article is the polar opposite of the creationists “1 x 10^1000000000000etc” arguement. I stopped reading after they claimed that because the ocean had a definite volume and an estimated concentration of 10^-6M of amino acids, that there was a definite (x mol/liter)*y liters= z moles of starting material available.
In reality, at such a low concentration, you need to worry much more about the frequency of collisions of molecules, and whether these collisions possess enough energy to initiate a reaction. The big picture that many biologists seem to miss out on is that the entire universe is governed by energy. Quite literally, without energy, nothing can happen. This might be my chemistry bias showing through, but just because something seems like it could happen doesn’t mean it actually can and will happen. The combination of amino acids into peptides is not exactly a thermodynamically taxing reaction pathway, but you still need the parts present in a large enough concentration with enough energy for anything productive to happen. Even then, with the conditions we speculate existed on the early Earth, there would be plenty of competing destructive reaction pathways to greatly reduce the realistic “odds” of abiogenesis.
Here’s a fantastic quote from this gibberish article Fundy evolutionist are just as bad as creationists Posted:
2.85 x 10^24 is certainly a large number, but for those of us who aren’t ****tarded, we recognize that that is about 5 moles or so of arginine. Not exactly an overwhelming thought, and certainly not enough of this essential building block to say “oh billions of billions of molecules surely some of them must have reacted in a way to form life”
Again, this is completely out of my area, and I know I’m not as informed as many other people on this topic, but rudimentary chemical kinetics seems to call much of the “claims” of that article into question. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 4:54AM | View Indiana Jonas's Profile | # | ||||||
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Ricket Posted:
The entire concept of a “God” is, by definition, beyond human understanding. Whether you’re a devout religious person trying to reconcile the reality of a vast world and universe with the idea of a creator with a plan, or an atheist/agnostic/whatever just toying with the idea of a supreme being, this is one of the hardest concepts to come to grips with. I truly believe that anyone who has a definite answer about “God” is simply choosing to just not think about it. |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 4:59AM | View Indiana Jonas's Profile | # | ||||||
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Hobart Bliggity Posted:
As long as “God is beyond human understanding” isn’t followed by ”...but I know what God wants/he did X, Y and Z” I’m fine with that position. Though I wouldn’t say “God is beyond human understanding” is accurate for the gods of many major religions, as followers seem to have a pretty good grasp on their concept of their god, and surely, if you think a god created the universe, you have at least a little bit of understanding as to why. Ricket edited this message on 05/30/2009 5:15AM |
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Posted On: 05/30/2009 5:13AM | View Ricket's Profile | # | ||||||
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Ricket Posted:
I’m saying more form/function/procedure unknowable. If any of the gods of major religions are the one true God, then they have revealed their reasoning and intentions through various means, but the how and why are still essentially clouded. |
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Posted On: 06/01/2009 9:12PM | View Crinkz's Profile | # | ||||||
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Does it *matter* if we’re alone in the universe or not? Since even if we’re not any life outside Earth is probably lightyears away. I’d be really surprised if we came up with travel speeds rivaling “Mbum Effect”. By that same token, does it matter if a god exists or not, since we can’t determine its characteristics?
This is of course outside philosophical/academic knowledge. DarkDespair5 edited this message on 06/01/2009 9:57PM |
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Posted On: 06/01/2009 9:54PM | View DarkDespair5's Profile | # | ||||||
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bumume a god exists.
We don’t know his purpose. We don’t know his identity. We don’t know his form. If there is no way to tell, then what is the point in living a life consistent with a particular “god” that has an insignificant chance of actually existing because of all the other possibilities?
i.e. Should we care outside academia what is outside our realm of knowledge? |
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Posted On: 06/01/2009 10:02PM | View DarkDespair5's Profile | # | ||||||
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No, I don’t think we’re alone in the universe. Neither I think we’re in the only universe. We are nothing special, Earth is orbiting the sun, which is by far not the center of our galaxy, and so on. For a race of humans that hasn’t left the planet (except some astronauts), we’ve discovered a lot already. The whole concept of matter and time, combining into something like a universe is, like famous Vulcan said, fascinating. |
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Posted On: 06/01/2009 10:28PM | View Aldo_Anything's Profile | # | ||||||
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