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Florence Cur-
ious

Avatar: 267890 2013-08-25 15:06:49 -0400
6

[Acetaprexapril]

Level 21 Camwhore

SPECIAL NEEDS PERSON: 1 2 3 Potato

black_jesus Posted:

rock, paper, scissors has exactly a 50% payoff (although it may use some strategy to beat people who think rock always wins)

You can try using Martingale http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

ie. bet 25 flezz, if you lose double it so if you subsequently win you get your initial cash back.

This way, you have to lose 5 times in a row before you are too far gone to recoup in one bet (25,50,100,250,500). Chances of this are (0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5) = 1/32, which feels kinda high to me. (payoff after 31 bets at 25 apiece is only 775, not enough to cover losing 500+250+100+50+25)

If you start on 5 bucks, your chance of losing money drop to 1/128, but you’ll be playing all year to actually make money.

Tried Martingale, all it did was make me win less and lose more. Back during my early times, it rotated dynamically between static responses.

Examples:

You say paper, it does rock. A few possible outcomes:

– Rock is the static result no matter what for three to five turns.

– The next result is scissors. Anytime you play paper again afterwards, it stays scissors for every paper played.

– It does paper. Then:

ooo If you keep doing paper, it keeps papering you, until it end in rock or scissors.

ooo The second turn is either rock or scissors, even if you play rock, it bumumes you were planning to play paper and vice versa.

– You do rock during a tie-breaking chain, it ends with paper. Playing a hand that loses to the hand that Gamble-Bot last played almost always ends in a win. Consequently, the reverse can happen too.

– You are most likely to get scissored endlessly after repeating paper after losing to scissor.

Of course, Gamble-Bot changes through these simple systems quite dynamically after a certain amount of wins (and possibly after it has tracked your playstyle). After those certain amount of easy wins, Gamble-Bot then starts making you lose more frequently after changing to higher bets.

Martingale won’t work at all either, because a) you’re wasting potential wins during a win streak and b) once you go through that long-bum lose streak, you are screwed, especially with lots of capita. Think about it: long bum lose streak gets you a loss of $35,000 which you try to work up again. You’ll have to keep betting $5,000 to make up for that huge loss and if you’re lucky, you’ll break even and have the sense to leave after winning your **** back. Pure Martingale is counter-productive in this case, but I always liked to Martingale with a base of Log in to see images! 250, so I at least made something without losing too much. But like I said…those lose bars are going to turn the Martingale into your greatest enemy.

tl;dr: When Gamble-Bot has relatively little information about how you play, you’ll win big. Once it figures you out, try grinding Mental Faculties for the 40k (50k-ish with 10 frugality) junk .moar.

Florence Curious edited this message on 08/23/2013 3:01AM
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