i ran some numbers for myself for my no upgrade point challenge (see my other thread), and i thought i’d share (link below).

first i wanted to know how many pieces i would need to complete pink floyd, bumuming drops are random (important).

well, for the first piece i’d obviously need exactly one piece.

for the second, i would have a 49/50 chance of a new piece dropping, and i’d expect (on average) to take 50/49 or 1.02 drops.

for the third, 50/48, and so on til the last piece which has a 1/50 chance to drop and would take 50 pieces.

adding those numbers i arrive at an expected total of 225 pieces.

on sheet 1 you can see how many pieces you need to collect (column B) to get (column A) different pieces of pink floyd.

turns out that if you have 45/50 pieces, you’re only half way there.

on sheet two you can find the expected numbers of drops (column B) you need to collect files of other sizes (column A).

edit: note that these are “expected values”, which means that on average, you will need as many files as my sheets show.

nevertheless, you can be lucky and need much less, or be unlucky and need much more.

anyway, here’s the link.

SimplyTHEBEST Posted:

That’s completely true – bumUMING that the pieces aren’t weighted.

In the HOFF/Pink Floyd thread we’ve recently uncovered evidence that you’re noticeably more likely to get files you need if your luck is low. So far it looks like it’s weighted in favor of people without gobs of luck, but we don’t know if lower is better or if there’s a sweetspot.

i read that thread and did not see enough evidence to overthrow the default bumumption that drops are random.

besides, the importance of that bumumption is clearly mentioned in my initial post.

SimplyTHEBEST Posted:

That bumumption has already been invalidated, as CZ HAS said that luck affects .more file drops. However, the specifics have not been made public.

if cz has said that the game will check which pieces you have, and determine whether you get a piece you don’t have by checking you luck stat, please link me to that info, as i would be ever so interested.

From what I have I would think the pieces are weighted seeing as I have like 4 or 5 of some pieces 2 of all the others but spent a week trying for piece 16.

sgreat timesmyfrog Posted:

This will happen without pieces being weighted. In another thread a mod has stated that ET said that they are not weighted.

i’m editing my first post to make this more clear.

my sheets list expected values which are averages.

but it’s still all random.

one player can collect pink floyd with 143 pieces, the other may take 320.

I set up a sheetsheet, first column just a long string of random numbers between 1 and 50, second column, a test to check how quickly you see each number. After about 100 data points I got bored, at which point I had an arithmetic mean of 220, and a standard deviation of 51.

So, 220 +/- 51 is about the number of parts the majority of users should require before obtaining a full set bumuming a normal distribution. A minority will see results outside this range. The maximum I saw was 372 Log in to see images!