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Luck versus Charisma | |||||||
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Afterthotz Posted: Not so helpful without some idea of the cred gained… if you don’t know the exact figure, can you guess at what kind of amount it would be?
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Posted On: 10/25/2009 12:50PM | View man-man's Profile | # | ||||||
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man-man Posted:
Oops, now edited. I had a feeling I had forgotten to do something this morning. Start> Accessories> Calculator
“The hippo of recollection stirred in the muddy waters of the mind.”
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Posted On: 10/25/2009 1:07PM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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That fits right in with the idea of a cap at 40K per unique forum pwned. If you continue getting ~160K, even with more Charisma then it’d pretty much confirm that.
I’ve decided I should try and repeat the one run I have on record that doesn’t hold to that limit… i.e. rack up as much cred as I can in 4 visits, equip my best rollover equipment then see what happens.
E: Maybe also try saving visits for a few days, then using 8 or 12 visits on a smaller set of forums so that the unique count is lower, see what happens then. man-man edited this message on 10/25/2009 1:19PM |
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Posted On: 10/25/2009 1:17PM | View man-man's Profile | # | ||||||
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man-man Posted:
I had a very skewed batch of data last week, so I ran it again the next day to be sure. Turns out I had forgotten to actually sell my deliveries after copy/pasting the earned the previous day causing the weird numbers.
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Posted On: 10/25/2009 1:23PM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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I can attest to the fact that you only get deliveries for pwning any given forum once per day. I’ve been farming HoFF on my Hacker and Troll alts, and they both consistently get just under 40k in deliveries the next day. Lower unique forum count -> lower delivery total, always. There was a delivery cap set back towards the beginning of Episode 2. Before it was in place, people were making absurd amounts of Flezz daily; now you can get about 40k maximum per forum pwned, as you’ve noticed. Adding LUK and CHA allows you to hit the delivery cap on lower-leveled forums. I’ve no idea if there’s some slope for delivery degradation as more (unique) forums per day are pwned, but I’m inclined to believe this isn’t the case. Coming back from a long-ish break, I had 15 visits stored up on my alts, and each of them made a bit less than 600k in deliveries the following day, which seems perfectly in keeping with the 40k per forum max delivery rate. Sorry I don’t have any hard numbers; figured my observations might be helpful even without them. The formula you’ve come up with is useful for maximizing deliveries on weak forums. I’ve noticed a slight increase in income since I started optimizing for CHA rather than giving LUK and CHA equal weight in my rollover equipment. |
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Posted On: 10/25/2009 1:43PM | View BobTheSqueakyWea...'s Profile | # | ||||||
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Dunatis’ runs of 12 forums (the ones he posted here at least) all fit the 40K per forum limit pretty much precisely. Looks like it’s not dependent on the number of visits you run. |
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Posted On: 10/25/2009 2:25PM | View man-man's Profile | # | ||||||
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Luck: 1 Charisma: 31 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 239479 # of deliveries: 23 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 158,402
And there we are. Looks like a cap to me. What next, dear number crunchers? A new set of runs on a higher/lower forum range? Is it almost time for some sweeping generalizations and announcements the layman can understand?
-“We’ve got a lot of experience of not having any experience” -“But the point is… the point is... the point is we’ve not been experienced for a lot longer than you.” |
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Posted On: 10/26/2009 11:00AM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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Since the cap isn’t all that hard to hit once you get past a certain point, the take-home message is that maximising deliveries depends on pwning as many different forums as possible. Would still be nice to get a fix on the formula for sub-cap values for deliveries.
The formula I came up with earlier is a reasonable predictor, I have a column in the data for Prediction/Actual, and none of them are monumentally wrong… a lot of them aren’t terribly well predicted, but it’s close.
Further additions to the spreadsheet are boxes to fill in values for the multipliers, so I can easily fiddle with something of the form “(xL + yC)* (c/z)”, adjust the weighting given to Char and Luck, and the amount cred-gain is divided by, to see what gives the best results.
For further data at this point, aim to come in under the 40K/forum limit. man-man edited this message on 10/26/2009 12:43PM |
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Posted On: 10/26/2009 12:43PM | View man-man's Profile | # | ||||||
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Ok, new influx of data into the system… sorted it out to move the runs that are pressed against 40k/forum off to one side, then extended my analysis over all of the data. Current setup has a column for the prediction, given different values fed into the basic formula that it seems to follow, then a column that divides the actual value by the prediction (so if that’s less than one, the run was worth less than predicted, over 1 it got more deliveries than predicted), then a column for the difference between that division and 1, taking the absolute value to get a measure of how far wrong the prediction is for that data point.
On the tops of the columns I have a cell each for the median of the actual/prediction column, and the maximum and average differences from 1.
So my method at the moment is to pick a pair of weightings for Luck and Charisma, then adjust the factor that credgain is divided by until the median is on 1, then see what the max/average error is. I’d like to point out at this point that I’m not a statistician, so there’s probably a better method, but trial and error for the win. Log in to see images!
Current best: Weight Charisma at 3 times luck, divide cred-gain by 69. Biggest error came in at 0.7 times the prediction, and the average deviation is 0.06, it also has the plus point that 69 is the kind of number someone programming this thing might decide to use…
[tl;dr: Current best formula is Delivery Value = (Luck + 3*Charisma) * (credgain/69), capped at 40,000 per unique forum pwned] man-man edited this message on 10/26/2009 7:43PM |
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Posted On: 10/26/2009 7:19PM | View man-man's Profile | # | ||||||
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Running some forums that will be well below the 40k/forum cap Faux News Grammar Nazis Web 1.0 Veterans Fathers against Pornography Luck: 1 Charisma: 1 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 (Will be running the same four forums daily) Cred gained yesterday: 7560 # of deliveries: 10 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 430 |
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Posted On: 10/27/2009 10:57AM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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Might I instead recommend doing a combination of
Denture Chat The Furry Farm Li’l Pony Groomers:Kids Only! Paranoid Panorama Something Lawful Dolphin Love
Since they all offer the same thread counts and thus you can keep Cred gain constant. |
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Posted On: 10/27/2009 8:47PM | View Dunatis's Profile | # | ||||||
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Dunatis Posted:
I’m all for making it easier on the mathemagicians – but as it stands now I’m only a few hours into a recent Haxlrose attribute redistribution… so for four days I’m unable to change back to a Luck1/Char1 base run. I’ll switch it up again on Saturday Log in to see images!
Luck: 1 Charisma: 11 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 6997 # of deliveries: 14 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 3,501
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Posted On: 10/28/2009 10:59AM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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Afterthotz Posted:
Afterthotz Posted:
Charisma isn’t affected at all by Haxl. If your Luck is 1, you should be able to manipulate your equipment to return to Luck 1 / Charisma 1 right now.
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Posted On: 10/28/2009 11:21AM | View MC Banhammer's Profile | # | ||||||
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MC Banhammer Posted:
This would normally be true MCB- if I was running the forums personally… but I have an alt doing all the grinding and his Charisma IS affected by haxl. Starter pack-wise, as it were.
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Posted On: 10/28/2009 11:32AM | View Zehd's Profile | # | ||||||
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But of course… I could never reveal the Super Secret Alternate that I don’t really have the time to do anything with. Even if he is just one of hundreds. Hundreds I tells you. |
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Posted On: 10/28/2009 11:40AM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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You all have far too much time on your hands. Log in to see images! |
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Posted On: 10/29/2009 5:57AM | View Sarcasm Inc's Profile | # | ||||||
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Sarcasm Inc Posted: |
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Posted On: 10/29/2009 9:08AM | View Dunatis's Profile | # | ||||||
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Luck: 1 Charisma: 21 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 7365 # of deliveries: 17 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 7,166 |
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Posted On: 10/29/2009 10:44AM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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Luck: 1 Charisma: 31 # of unique forums pwn’ed yesterday: 4 Cred gained yesterday: 8221 # of deliveries: 19 Total value of deliveries (Frugality 10): 11,781
Should be able to haxl late tonight or tomorrow morning, then I’ll stick to the forums suggested above by Dunatis. I’ll start with Luck again and ease it up. Charisma, having only one role – seems to be the hammer. Luck, having two roles – deliveries AND helping you with defense(?)/dodging in forums, is definitely a more subtle touch. |
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Posted On: 10/30/2009 10:08AM | View Afterthotz's Profile | # | ||||||
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I’m pretty sure that ET confirmed that luck does not influence pwning in any way. (It will not make the forum miss you more often, only defense matters for that.) |
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Posted On: 10/30/2009 10:56AM | View scully's Profile | # | ||||||