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Moar Drops Information | |||||||
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I’ve been trying to get stats on the files dropped in forums at a pace which is slower than they come out with new ones, usually 1 1/2 weeks per forum, and then I realized that if ET were to suddenly add or remove a file from any forum I get any sort of stats on, it would suddenly become a complete waste of my time to have tried getting any percentages.
Does anyone know if files can be randomly added or removed from already established forums? I know recently all of the forums that had no drops suddenly do and that’s all fine and dandy but were the old ones changed at all? If so, is it at least safe enough to bumume that the files currently in the forums won’t be removed?
So far all I have found in my grinding leads me to believe that – Luck does not affect the pieces dropped, they are randomly given – If a single piece of a file can be found in a forum, the entire file can be found eventually in that forum – Luck DOES affect the rarity of certain files, making some more common and others less so, but that there is no file that can only be found if you have a certain amount of Luck (1 in a million chance is still a chance and it would be far easier to program. It’s not like there is any need to completely remove the chance of finding one piece of a 20 piece file when a 0.05% chance means you more than likely will never get it anyways.) – There are not pieces that are more rare than others, only files – The drops are not skewed towards unique pieces
Currently I don’t have any real statistically valid proof of any of this other than Luck does affect file drops, but for it to be statistically valid I would need thousands of runs across all possible Lucks in all the forums. As it stands it’s just conjecture from thousands of drops in a select few forums but it’s also most likely that ET didn’t do some sort of insanely complicated algorithm just for the sake of complication. A single line of code to affect how Luck affects drops (well, it will be more but still something relatively simple) and a random number generator is all one would need since because of that number generator it would be near impossible to determine the line of code anyways, no matter how simplistic. Finally since if anyone really wanted any individual file, they’d just have to grind a forum. To go through all the extra work of putting tiny nuances in the code for such a minor part of the game would be rather silly I’d say, but maybe ET really loves to program complex algorithms.
If anyone has any info on Moar drops, preferably from the Trout’s mouth since I’m not willing to go through thousands of threads to maybe find a scrap of info, I’d love to hear it so I know if my efforts for finding percentiles are in vain or not so I can simply work on finding out which forums have what files and if necessary, which pieces. |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 3:02PM | View wOunded-7r4g3Dy-...'s Profile | # | ||||||
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wOunded-7r4g3Dy-21 Posted:
pink floyd? |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 3:18PM | View Pavilion's Profile | # | ||||||
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Pavilion Posted:
Still no. Just look at the thread. Luck affects only the file itself, not the pieces. This was confirmed to be by ET.
And OP, you have seen the Wiki, yes? Specifically Moar Files By Forum? |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 3:24PM | View MC Banhammer's Profile | # | ||||||
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wOunded-7r4g3Dy-21 Posted:
Huh? |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 3:27PM | sgreat timesmyfrog | # | ||||||
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wOunded-7r4g3Dy-21 Posted:
New files can be added as time goes on, but existing files should not be removed, at least as of this writing. |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 4:44PM | View MC Banhammer's Profile | # | ||||||
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That’s the wiki I was hoping to edit but if new files can be added over time then it’s kind of a complete waste of time to get percentile for them, If they can be removed, it’s really annoying, and if finding a single piece means you can get the whole file, it makes editing the wiki far easier. I guess though that I will keep up the percentile thing since even if it can be rendered obsolete with a single addition of a file, it won’t really change the rarity of the file that much, and certainly not how Luck is found to affect it. And if ET stated somewhere that Luck does not affect the pieces dropped, I know of another thread dedicated to seeing if that is the case that is a waste of time right now and I will put it on the wiki in my next update. |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 5:53PM | View wOunded-7r4g3Dy-...'s Profile | # | ||||||
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wOunded-7r4g3Dy-21 Posted:
/me blinks his eyes and tries to clear them.
Could you please use paragraphs breaks?
ET has told me that Luck does not affect the pieces dropped, just the files found. It’s not posted anywhere but it’s accurate. So yes, if you find one piece in a forum, the entire file is available in that forum.
You can try to spade the percentile chances but since that is likely to vary with your Luck stat, I imagine it’ll take a long while. Still, if that’s what floats your boat, go for it! I’m sure many people would be happy to see the results. |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 6:02PM | View MC Banhammer's Profile | # | ||||||
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Sorry, I’ll try to be better about paragraph breaks in the future, and that’s very useful intel about one piece equals whole file. Makes my life far easier.
I’ll keep up the percentages tally, 200 drops in each of 6 characters with Luck ranging from 1-82, if the forum has only 5 threads, that’s a good 10 days right there, but for the most part it shouldn’t be THAT bad.
Although I’m starting with the low end forums since I have a level 7 Re-re helping out, I still learnt that the best program file exists in Denture Chat, at least for Hackers, and only in Denture Chat. Luckily it was my own Hacker who pulled it off.
Also maybe someday I’ll remember to make all of my posts under one alt instead of bouncing back and forth without realizing it… Log in to see images! |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 6:39PM | View cro7ch-master's Profile | # | ||||||
So basically, if I know a forum drops a certain moar file, but I’m not getting parts as quickly as I’d like, try changing my luck down. If the drop rate gets worse, push my luck up. If that gets me more parts, push up further. Basically, homing in on the ideal luck level to obtain a particular file.
Since there are only a few files worth grinding for, we just need to find the ‘ideal’ luck level for each of these in turn. |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 7:00PM | View Vultan's Profile | # | ||||||
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Vultan Posted:
Only problem with that plan is the specific number will likely change when a new file is introduced. Better, I think, to get the percentages, because the relativeness of the percentages probably (IMO, not officially) won’t change.
In other words, if there’s an equal chance of getting 1 of 4 files, and then a new file is introduced, it’s reasonable to bumume that the original 4 still have equal chance of being dropped, even if that percentage drops to below 25%. |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 7:06PM | View MC Banhammer's Profile | # | ||||||
If luck only affects the % chance of a particular file being dropped, if different files have different drop distribution curves for varying luck levels, and a new file is introduced, that’s going to change all the percentile data we’ve collected so far.
If you find the peak luck value for your target file, that should not change, unless all the distributions are changed after another file is introduced (i.e. ET messes up all the data we’ve collected so far) It follows that, if another file is introduced, though the % drop rate for your target will lower, it will still be the peak drop rate, for that level of luck and forum. |
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Posted On: 12/30/2008 7:28PM | View Vultan's Profile | # | ||||||
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What I have going on which may help is that alongside the percentile which may change, is a rarity based on the percentile and how Luck affects it. This should remain fairly static across a few new additions unless a new addition suddenly takes up 50% of the drops or something like that.
One could get by with just the rarity and the info on how Luck affects drops very easily, but the more important thing would be which forum drops the most of a certain file which will take a while to learn.
I suppose that something I should start doing is set up a cheater character whose sole purpose is to test this out using extra runs bought from the store and get the required BP from contests or donations. Well that or stop being such a lurker and find a group of people willing to do Runs for me at set Luck scores. And I mean enough runs to get a minimum of 200 drops, the only value I’m bothering to use at this point since any good statistic has a whole messton of data.
I know some people are doing Runs to find stuff out and apparently there are groups dedicated to this but I haven’t seen any numbers in the wiki, just a bunch of small time run data here and there which is more work to sort out and find than it is to go out and make myself. |
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Posted On: 12/31/2008 12:04AM | View Dunatis's Profile | # | ||||||